The boom time for international student recruitment to postgraduate courses in the United Kingdom appears to be over – with a survey of British universities revealing a sharp fall in the January 2024 intake following immigration rule changes that prevent overseas students from bringing family with them while studying on taught masters programmes.
The survey by Universities UK, which had responses from 73 universities, showed international enrolments were down by 44% this January, with uncertainty over the future of the UK’s post-study work offer and increasingly negative rhetoric from the government over the impact of the surge in overseas student numbers since the COVID pandemic.
That coupled with the rise in visa fees is putting international students off in seeing the UK as a study destination, according to experts.
The January intake of international students is mostly comprised of postgraduates.
The picture is reinforced by the latest data from Enroly, the digital platform that helps over 60 UK universities to streamline international admissions and compliance processes and is used by a third of overseas students coming to the UK to study and by many agents recruiting foreign students for British institutions.
January intake preview
Enroly’s January intake data was previewed in a webinar on 27 February at which Modesta Rahman, the firm’s senior product manager, said key metrics showed Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) issuances were down by a third compared with January 2023 and deposits paid by students for places at UK universities and visas had dropped by a similar percentage.
“Last year represented a potential spike for many UK institutions and 2024 volumes are much closer to what we saw back in 2022,” she said.
The biggest falls in deposits came from Nigeria (-71.9%) , Sri Lanka (-60%), Bangladesh (-52.8%) and India (-36%) – but figures are up (for deposits) from Pakistan (+32%) and Nepal (+11.%). It is a similar picture for CAS issuances from the same countries.
“Most of the declines have been driven by ‘high risk’ markets where financial evidence needs to be given [before students are accepted],” explained Rahman.
Overall, Enroly’s data comparing January’s 2024 intake with January 2023 showed postgraduate numbers were down by 37%, but international undergraduates enrolling this January (which represents a much smaller market) are up by 23%.
Recruiting universities hit hard
The biggest numbers of international students starting in January are those studying at postgraduate level and Dr David Pilsbury, chief development officer with the Oxford International Education Group, warns the fall in recruiting high-fee international students will hit “recruiting universities” very hard.
He told University World News: “For some recruiting universities the January intake had become as big as they used to recruit in September – so they will be really hurt by the sharp fall in numbers from key markets like Nigeria and India this January.
“I know that a number of universities that didn’t hit their September targets just added the difference to the January target. So this is a serious hit for many UK universities.”
Risk to Graduate Route
Another survey, this time from IDP, an international agency that helps students all around the world apply to universities abroad, said their data indicates that 45% of applicants would probably change or consider changing their study destination if the post-study work period was shortened, with just over a third saying the UK government’s intention to review the (post-study) Graduate visa meant that they are now re-considering study abroad plans or inclined to choose another destination.
The Graduate Route allows overseas students to work, or look for work, in the UK for two years (three years for research students) after they graduate. It was reintroduced for those graduating in July 2021 after the Boris Johnson government reversed Theresa May’s decision to axe post-study work visas nearly a decade earlier.
That move in 2012-13 led to the UK losing market share of globally mobile international students to the other big study abroad destinations – the United States, Australia and Canada – as well as to up and coming international study destinations.
Pilsbury told University World News that it shouldn’t have surprised anyone, least of all those in UK government, that re-introducing the post-study work visa would spur on the number of overseas students coming to British universities.
“That was the point of reintroducing it as international students flat-lined after it was withdrawn,” said Pilsbury.
UK government ‘spooked’
“However, the UK government seems to have been spooked by the rapid increase, particularly in the number of the masters students. But even with that growth, the UK has only just reached the number of international students predicted in an earlier target promoted by David Willetts when he was the universities and science minister in 2013. Then he talked about attracting 600,000 overseas students by 2020,” said Pilsbury.
A revitalised international education strategy launched by Chris Skidmore when he was universities minister in 2019 reset the 600,000 target for international students coming to the UK, but this time for 2030.
However, a combination of circumstances including the closing of borders to international students in rival study destinations during the COVID pandemic while the UK remained relatively open, coupled with the return of the post-study work offer, meant many more foreign students made a beeline for Britain than expected and the UK hit its 600,000 target in 2021, with numbers soaring again in 2022 to 679,970.
Figures for 2023 are still eagerly awaited from the Higher Education Statistics Agency and should now be published in April.
But there have already been concerns that the rapid rise in the number of foreign students is putting undue strain on schools and public services like the health service; and in response the Rishi Sunak government imposed a ban on all but research students bringing family members with them when they come to the UK, as University World News first reported back in May 2023.
The Graduate Route is currently under review by the Migration Advisory Committee, with fears that the period of work opportunities may be cut from the current two-to-three years to six months, or removed altogether, with graduates having to apply to the skilled worker route if they wish to stay in the UK. That has much stricter criteria.
Worrying decline in Indian female students
Dr Janet Ilieva, founder and director of the Education Insight research consultancy, said the latest data from Enroly “sends a worrying signal that the reductions experienced in the autumn [to international student recruitment] are set to continue”.
She told University World News: “The Enroly data shows a significant decline in female students from India – they estimated only a third of the student population this January from India were women compared to almost half the previous January. This is likely to be an unintended consequence of changes to the ability of international masters students to bring dependants. We always expected this policy change to impact mature female learners most.”
Vivienne Stern, chief executive of Universities UK, which represents 142 British universities, said: “The UK is extremely fortunate to be a popular destination for international students,” adding that she “regrets the fact the government appears to want to diminish our success in this area.”
Stern said if they want to see a reduction in overseas numbers the latest data shows they have already achieved that through policy changes introduced earlier this year, such as banning taught masters students from bringing dependants and increasing visa costs.
“If they go further, they will damage the economies of towns and cities throughout the UK, as well as many universities. Given we should be doing everything we can to promote economic growth, this seems to be getting the priorities wrong.”
She said the survey by Universities UK showed a 44% drop in international enrolments in January 2024 following a 0.4% drop in September 2023 and claimed the re-introduction of the Graduate (post-study work) Route had given the country a £60 billion economic boost using data from London Economics.
“The Graduate visa has helped to keep the UK as a top study destination in an increasingly competitive global market, supporting thousands of jobs up and down the country and bolstering the country’s reputation and soft power influence,” she said.
“Uncertainty surrounding whether the government will change or withdraw the graduate visa is already damaging UK universities’ competitiveness,” warns John Foster, chief policy and campaigns officer for the Confederation of British Industry.
The Enroly data cited compares the January 2024 intake with the January 2023 intake and is taken from a representative sample of over 68,000 international student offers. Figures given are based on CAS issuance and deposits paid by students.
The data from Enroly also compared CAS-to-visa turnaround in days and found the turnaround was taking longer for certain countries, going up from 30 days to 37 days for January starts from Pakistan and from 30.5 days to 45 days for Iran.
Visa refusals have gone down for Ghana, by -5.8%, which was a ‘hot issue’ last year, according to Enroly. They had also gone down slightly for students applying from Bangladesh. The biggest increase in visa refusals was from Sri Lanka, up by 5.5%, for January starts this year.
The main reason for visa refusals across all countries was “credibility” followed by financial requirements not being met; inability to verify financial documents and fraudulent financial documents, according to Enroly data.
